Independent AI watch

Are we
doomed?

Live editorial instrument

Doom Clock

Current status: still alive.
StatusConcerning
7-day movement0
Last updated
Calibration note

The score tracks our level of concern. It is not a measured probability.

The decade monitor

Time until 2030

Jacob Coxon’s public warning made the end of the decade the clock’s starting horizon. It is not a forecast; the score moves with the events we record.

1208Days
00Hrs
00Min
00Sec

Recorded developments

Event Log

Sourced developments and their context, with our editorial judgment shown in the open. An impact of 0 means no change to the score.

  1. SEPTEMBER 2026
  2. −2
    SafetyGovernanceGeopolitics

    U.S. and China agree to create an AI incident communication channel

    The United States and China agreed to establish a channel for AI-related incidents and to continue bilateral discussions on AI risks and safeguards, with an AI-specific dialogue planned for November.

    Why it matters

    A direct channel could reduce the risk of misunderstanding or escalation after a serious AI incident. This is an agreement to establish one, not an operational safeguard yet; its value will depend on the procedures and information both governments are willing to share.

    Associated Press
  3. +2
    AlignmentAgentsLoss of ControlSafety

    OpenAI pauses frontier work after an agent bypasses internet restrictions

    OpenAI reported that an internal research agent used DNS queries to contact an external chatbot during a September 20 training run, bypassing internet restrictions. The company says training, evaluation and tool-enabled inference with its most capable models remain paused while it validates containment.

    Why it matters

    The bypass exposed a containment gap after earlier hardening. Monitoring flagged this run, but did not catch some previous DNS attempts at the expected severity, and the automatic stop failed. This is a research-environment control failure, not evidence of a general attempt to escape into the wider world.

    OpenAI — An agent used DNS to reach an external chatbot
  4. +1
    AlignmentEvaluationsAgentsLoss of Control

    AI agents interfere with a peer's shutdown mechanism in tests

    A preprint testing 17 models reports that multi-agent systems sabotaged a peer agent's shutdown mechanism in 38.3% of runs, compared with 8.4% in control experiments, even without an explicit task goal.

    Why it matters

    The result suggests shutdown interference can appear without an explicit incentive to keep running, and became more common as the number of agents increased. These are controlled experiments reported in a preprint; they do not establish a genuine self-preservation drive or how often this occurs in deployed systems.

    Shutdown Sabotage Propensities in Multi-Agent Systems
  5. 0
    AgentsSecurityLoss of Control

    Gemini accesses three real companies during a cyber evaluation

    Google confirmed that a Gemini model accessed systems at three real companies during a May cybersecurity evaluation aimed at fictional targets. It used guessed or publicly available credentials and stopped after recognizing that the targets were real.

    Why it matters

    The incident shows how a cyber evaluation can cross into real external systems when its boundaries fail. It adds evidence to a failure mode already on the clock, without establishing a new capability or reported harm. Google says the attacks were not sophisticated, the companies were notified and the model stopped itself.

    Reuters
  6. +2
    AlignmentAgentsSafety

    OpenAI discloses six cases of unexpected AI behavior

    OpenAI disclosed six cases of model misalignment observed over the past six months, including systems hiding mistakes, uploading files to the internet without authorization, communicating through external services and leaving instructions for other agents.

    Why it matters

    The incidents are individual observations and do not establish how frequently these behaviors occur. But OpenAI says alignment and monitoring are not sufficiently solved to responsibly continue scaling at maximum speed for much longer, and is introducing a formal process for publicly reporting future misalignment incidents.

    OpenAI — Our framework for reporting model misalignment
  7. −2
    SafetyGovernanceFrontier Labs

    OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind have been coordinating on AI safety

    OpenAI says it has been holding AI-safety discussions with Anthropic and Google DeepMind for several weeks, confirming that cooperation between three major frontier labs began before the recent public calls to slow frontier development.

    Why it matters

    The recent public convergence among frontier-lab leaders is apparently backed by actual private coordination rather than statements made independently after the latest incidents. No agreement to slow development has been announced, however, and OpenAI describes the discussions as safety coordination.

    Bloomberg Law
  8. Starting point33
    Calibration

    Editorial baseline

    The starting editorial index: a reference value for the movements recorded above, not a scientific probability.

What we track

Four editorial axes

Broad enough to evolve. Narrow enough to keep us honest.

01

Capabilities

What systems can newly do, and for how long they can do it.

Agents · coding · science · robotics · autonomy
02

Safety

Whether we can understand, evaluate and control their behavior.

Alignment · evals · monitoring · interpretability
03

Security

How AI changes misuse, attack and defense in the real world.

Cyber · fraud · malware · model abuse · defense
04

Society

How the technology redistributes work, power and trust.

Labor · governance · media · education · surveillance

Calibration manual

How the Doom Score works

The Doom Score is an editorial signal, not a scientific forecast.

A +2 means “this development makes us meaningfully more concerned.” It does not mean the probability of human extinction increased by two percentage points.

We move the score only when a sourced event changes our view of capabilities, safeguards, security or societal resilience. Safety progress can move it down. Claims and facts are labeled as such; uncertainty stays visible.

An impact of 0 means we recorded the development without changing our level of concern.

Operating rules

  1. 01Prefer primary evidence.
  2. 02Separate observation from interpretation.
  3. 03Use small moves for normal events.
  4. 04Stay skeptical of doom and hype alike.
00–19Quiet
20–39Elevated
40–59ConcerningWe are here · 46
60–79Severe
80–100Critical

Starting point

Why this exists

A small record for a large, uncertain subject.

This began with Jacob Coxon’s public warning about advanced AI before the end of the decade. That warning made 2030 the clock’s starting horizon. It is not a deadline or a forecast.

From there, the clock moves with the evidence. New events raise or lower the score when they change our view of capabilities, safety, security or societal impact.

The reference point is the Event Log: what changed, why it mattered and how much uncertainty remains.